Introduction
Evidence indicates that the level of desire to migrate from Iran has increased in recent years. For instance, approximately 42 percent of respondents in the National Survey of Social Capital (2018) expressed a desire to migrate. This figure reached approximately 47.5 percent in other studies (Firozysoreh et al., 2020) and 52.5 percent (Haghdoost et al., 2022). Such a high level of desire to migrate may contribute to the emergence of a “migration fever” and the widespread perception of migration as a desirable or generalized option within society. However, not all individuals who desire to migrate have the practical means to do so, which may in turn generate various psychological, social, economic, and even political consequences for society.
The continuation of a negative net migration balance, alongside persistently low fertility, will have significant demographic consequences. On the one hand, declining fertility rates will reduce the population under the age of 15; on the other hand, negative net migration, particularly among individuals aged 20–40, will contribute to a decline in the country’s young and economically active population. The interaction of these two trends will ultimately accelerate the aging of Iran’s population. Furthermore, given that a substantial proportion of migrants are of working age and are often skilled and highly educated, the migration of young and skilled human resources can be regarded as a major challenge for the country’s future economic and social development.
Most studies on international migration in Iran have been conducted as case-specific investigations in particular geographical areas or among specific population groups, while studies based on nationally representative samples remain limited. Accordingly, drawing on the findings of the National Survey of Values and Attitudes of Iranian Youth conducted in 2020, this study seeks to answer two questions: (1) What is the status of young people’s desire to undertake international migration in Iran? and (2) What are the main causes and factors influencing the desire to migrate from Iran?
Method
The research method employed in this study is a secondary analysis of data from the “National Survey of Values and Attitudes of Iranian Youth,” conducted in 2020 by the Center for Strategic Studies and Research of the Ministry of Sports and Youth. Data collection was carried out by the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA).
The statistical population of the study consisted of young people aged 18–35 across the country. Based on the Cochran formula, the calculated sample size for the survey was 11,364 respondents.
Findings
The findings of this study indicate that the desire to migrate from the country is a widespread and significant phenomenon. Nearly half of the young people surveyed (45.5 percent) expressed a desire to migrate from Iran and stated that they wished to live in a country other than Iran.
Regional analyses also indicate that in provinces such as Tehran, Alborz, and Kordestan, the proportion of young people desiring to migrate is higher than the proportion expressing a preference to remain in the country. In contrast, in southern and less-developed provinces, the preference to remain in the country is predominant. These findings underscore the importance of economic development, employment opportunities, and educational conditions in shaping the desire to migrate.
The findings further demonstrate that the desire to migrate is associated with the demographic characteristics of young people. Specifically, unmarried youth, individuals without children, and younger age groups (18–24 years) exhibited the highest levels of desire to migrate. These results suggest that family ties and social responsibilities, including marriage and childbearing, are strongly associated with decisions to leave the country. The findings also indicate that gender does not have a statistically significant association with the desire to migrate and did not remain significant in the multivariate model.
University education, high household expenditures, active employment status, and residence in large cities are associated with greater desire to migrate. Young people with university education expressed the highest levels of desire to migrate, which may reflect a mismatch between educational expectations and the employment opportunities available within the country. Moreover, the higher level of desire to migrate among groups experiencing higher living costs indicates that migration is not confined to disadvantaged groups; rather, it is also considered among the middle and higher socioeconomic groups as a strategy for improving quality of life and gaining access to better employment and welfare opportunities.
The findings of this study indicate that the desire to migrate does not arise solely from individual characteristics but is significantly associated with the prevailing social and economic structures. Variables such as life satisfaction, expectations for the future—both at the broader societal level and at the individual and occupational levels—as well as perceptions of social and economic security are associated with young people’s decisions to remain in or leave the country.
In addition to structural factors, cultural and value-based attitudes are also associated with the desire to migrate. The results indicate that attitudes toward social norms, particularly regarding clothing and hijab, are correlated with the desire to migrate. Non-adherence to traditional views regarding dress is associated with a substantial increase in the likelihood of desiring to migrate, whereas agreement with such views is associated with a greater inclination to remain in the country.
On the other hand, the role of a sense of attachment to the homeland as a factor discouraging migration represents one of the key findings of this study. A strong sense of national attachment reinforces individuals’ emotional and identity-based ties to their society and increases the psychological and social costs associated with migration. Consequently, even under conditions of economic or cultural dissatisfaction, individuals with stronger national attachment may be less inclined to leave the country.
Conclusion
Overall, the findings of this study underscore the need for a multidimensional perspective on youth migration. Migration is the outcome of the interaction of economic, social, cultural, and identity-related factors. Effective policymaking in this area therefore requires strengthening social hope, enhancing perceptions of social and economic security, reducing cultural gaps, and ultimately reinforcing a sense of belonging and social capital among the younger generation.