Population Dynamics in Iran Post-Islamic Revolution An Examination of Policies, Opportunities, Challenges, and Effective Strategies

Document Type : Research Article

Author

Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

10.22059/jisr.2025.391957.1599

Abstract

Various social and political aspects of our lives are substantially influenced by demographic dynamics and changes, which have a multifaceted impact on social, economic, and political subsystems. Decision-making processes and policy formulation are also impacted by these changes, in addition to power structures and relationships between groups. Furthermore, these transformations are themselves influenced by social, economic, and cultural factors, as well as development policies and programs that have the potential to influence demographic trends and their impacts.
In order to investigate the demographic changes in Iran, this article employs documentary methods and secondary analysis of census results and data from the Iranian Civil Registry Organization, as well as the corresponding challenges and opportunities.
The findings indicate that demographic changes can offer opportunities for the country’s economic growth and development; however, the formulation of suitable governance policies is necessary to capitalize on these opportunities. Challenges such as low fertility rates, regional inequalities, and an aging population also present serious issues that demand attention from policymakers and governmental institutions.
The Supreme Leader's population policy necessitates the comprehensive implementation of all 14 principles in order to capitalize on the demographic window of opportunity and address current demographic challenges. These policies not only provide a framework for managing demographic changes but also significantly influence macro-level policy-making and social development. The successful execution of these policies necessitates the coordination of governmental institutions, the utilization of economic capabilities, and the engagement of civil society participation. In this context, it is imperative to conduct ongoing assessments of policies and monitor their results to guarantee their efficacy and compatibility with the demographic requirements of the country.

Keywords


Abernethy, V., & Hardin, G. (2000). Population politics: The choices that shape our future. Routledge.
Shavazi, M. A., McDonald, P., & Hosseini, M. (2009). The Fertility Transition in Iran: Revolution and Reproduction. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3198-3_5
Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J., & Esmaeili, N. (2022). Introduction of Agent-Based Modeling in Explaining Low Fertility. Iranian Population Studies7(1), 257-292. https://doi.org/10.22034/jips.2021.263638.1091 (In Persian)
Abbasi-Shavazi, M, J. (2002). Convergence of Fertility Behaviors in Iran: Fertility Levels of Provinces, Trends and Patterns in Iran. Journal of Social Sciences, 18, 201-231. (In Persian)
Afshar- Kohan, J., & Sadeghi, R. (2006). A Sociological Approach to the Population Problem. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 2, 195-215. (In Persian)
Ale-Molana, B., & Esmaili, M. M. (2010). A study of family planning and restriction policies. Second Impression Quarterly, 7(11-12), 109-140. (In Persian)
Amini, A. R., & Farhadikia, A. R. (2017). Employment Functions and its Estimation and Forecast across Economic Sectors in Iran’s Sixth Development Plan. JEPR21(4), 61-100. (In Persian)
Amini-Yakhdani, M. (2014). Demographic Transition Stages. Journal of Baqer Al-Uloom Research Institute. Available at: http://pajoohe.ir/(In Persian)
Announcement of General Population Policies 23/02/2014, Available at: http://farsi.khamenei.ir/news-content?id=26440 (In Persian)
 Behnam, J. (2005). General Demography. Tehran: Tehran University Press. (In Persian)
Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 56-419.
Bastani, S., Rahnama, F., & Ghazinejad, M. (2013). Social exclusion case: subjective and objective exclusion Tehranian's elderly. Quarterly of Social Studies and Research in Iran2(4), 599-626. https://doi.org/10.22059/jisr.2013.52292 (In Persian)
Balakhani, G. (2022). Qualitative study of attitudes toward population policies and childbearing (Case study of Ardabil youth). Women’s Strategic Studies24(96), 39-67. https://doi.org/10.22095/jwss.2022.342257.2998 (In Persian)
Cincotta, R. (2007). Population Age Structure and Its relation to Civil Conflict: A Metric. Environmental Changes and Security Project Report, 12, 55-58.
Cincotta, R. (2015). Who’s Next? Age Structure and the Prospects of Democracy and Conflict in North Africa and the Middle East, in Koeneraad Matthijs et al. (eds.), Population changes in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa: Beyond the demographic Divide,. Farnham, Uk: Ashgate. 167-202.
Eslami, R., & Farkhari, M. (2023). Investigating the policy cycle of population increase in the Islamic Republic of Iran (focusing on the fourth period of population policies). Socio-Cultural Strategy12(5), 1-30. https://rahbordfarhangi.csr.ir/article_170953.html (In Persian)
Esmaeili, N., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2024). Forecasting number of births and sex ratio at birth in Iran using deep neural network and ARIMA: implications for policy evaluations. Journal of Population Research, 41(4), 26-47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12546-024-09348-9
Esmaeili, N., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2024). Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling. Demographic Research, 51, 107-154. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.5
Fathi, E. (2015). Urbanization Trends in Iran. Journal of Official Statistics of Iran, 3(12), 8-15. Available at: http://amar.srtc.ac.ir/article-1-32-fa.html (In Persian)
Fathi, E. (2019). Fertility Outlook in Iran from 2016 to 2019; Report of the Statistical Center of Iran. Available at: https://amar.org.ir/gozideamari/ID/13090 (In Persian)
Fathi, E. (2019). Population aging phenomenon in Iran. Journal of Official Statistics of Iran, 30(2), 387-413. (In Persian)
Fathi, E., Javid, N. M., & Nasiripour, M. (2022). Fertility trends in Iran from 2017 to 2021, report prepared in Population, Labor Force and Census, Statistical Center of Iran. Avaliable at: https://www.amar.org.ir/news/ID/18601/ (In Persian)
Gheisar, A., Eskandari- Sabzi, S., Salmanpour, A., & Hajiasghari, S. Y. (2023). Population Forecasting and Dynamic Analysis of Population Structure Changes in Iran (1976 to 2076). Socio-Cultural Strategy12(4), 1251-1282. https://rahbordfarhangi.csr.ir/article_171769.html (In Persian)
Hosseinzadeh, J. (2019). Population Window, Human Resource Management and Sustainable Economic Growth in the Second Phase of the Islamic Revolution of Iran. Journal of Iranian Official Statistics Studies, 30(1), 121-154. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.25385798.1398.30.1.5.2 (In Persian)
Hosseini, H. (2013). Economic and Social Demography and Family Planning. Hamedan: Bu-Ali Sina University Press. (In Persian)
Kazemipour, S. (2010), Development and Population Relations in Iran: With a Future-oriented Approach. Second Impression Quarterly, 7(11-12), 106-75. (In Persian)
Kalantari-Banadaki, S. Z., Azar, A., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2018). System Dynamics and Iran’s Population Changes. Journal of Population Association of Iran12(24), 7-41. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.1735000.1396.12.24.1.2 (In Persian)
Krishnan, P. (2005). Political Demography of India: Determinants and Consequences. Delhi: B.R. Publishing Corporation.
Lucas, D., & Paul, M. (2002). An Introduction to Demographic Studies. Tehran: Tehran University Press. (In Persian)
Lu, Y. (2024). Political Demography: The Political Consequences of Structural Population Change. Annual Review of Sociology, 50, 603-625. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-soc-030222-024414
Lee, R. (2003). The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 167-190.
Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Scheebov, S. (2008). The coming acceleration of global population ageing. Nature, 451(7179), 716-719. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06516
Mahmoudian, H., & Ghasemi-Ardahaei, A. (2017). Migration and Urbanization in Iran. Report on Population Developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran, National Population Research Institute, 65-76. (In Persian)
Mahmoudian, H. (2016). A Study of Emerging Demographic Issues in Iran. Political Articles Collection, and United Nations Population Fund. (In Persian)
Mohebi-Meymandi, M., & Sasanipour, M. (2020). Covid-19 and its Challenges for Demographic Transitions: The Age of Updating Emerging Pandemics? Journal of Population Association of Iran15(30), 41-74. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2021.131572.1156 (In Persian)
Mahmoudian, H., & Esmaeili, N. (2023). Predicting the labor force participation rate in Iran using neural network based Simulations. Journal of Economic & Developmental Sociology12(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.22034/jeds.2023.51837.1658 (In Persian)
Moshfegh, M., & Mirzaei, M. (2010). Age transition in Iran: (Age changes in population and social-demographic policies). Population Quarterly, 71-72, 1-22. (In Persian)
Moshfegh, M., & Ghorbani, H. (2012), Future research on demographic changes in Iran during the period 2011 to 2041. Journal of Social Cultural Knowledge, 1(13), 21-42. (In Persian)
Mahmoudi, M. J., & Shojaei, J. (2024). Demographic developments, population growth, fertility and its future, age structure, marriage and divorce. National Population Research Institute. (In Persian)
Modiri, F., Tanhha, F., & Gilani, N. (2021). Socio-economic determinants of childbearing intention and behavior among men in Tehran. Quarterly of Social Studies and Research in Iran10(4), 1123-1147. https://doi.org/10.22059/jisr.2021.323694.1209 (In Persian)
Mahzoun, A. A. (2018). Demographic window, generational economic transitions and the prospects of the first and second demographic dividend in Iran. Statistical Center of Iran, Population, Labor Force and Census Bureau. (In Persian)
McDonald, P. (2008). Very Low Fertility, Consequences, Causes and Policy Approaches. The Japanese Journal of Population, 6(1), 19-23. https://doi.org/index-e.html
Morgan, P., & Taylor, M. (2006). Low Fertility at the Turn of the Twenty-First Century. NIH Public Access, 32, 375–399. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.31.041304.122220
Mason, A. (2003). Population Change and Economic Development: What have We Learnt from the East Asia Experience? Applied Population and Policy, 1(1) 3-14.
Mason, A. (2005). Economic Demography, In a Handbook of Population, edited by Dudley L. Poston and Michael Micklin. US: Kluwer Academic. Plenum Publisher. 549-575.
Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. (2003). Second Wave, Findings of Iranian Values and Attitudes: Survey Findings in 28 Provinces of the Country. Tehran. (In Persian)
Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance (2015). Third Wave, Findings of Iranian Values and Attitudes: Survey Findings in 28 Provinces of the Country. Tehran. (In Persian)
Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance (2023). Fourth Wave: Iranian Values and Attitudes Survey Findings in 28 Provinces. Tehran. (In Persian)
Rezaei, M. (2021). Population and Politic in Iran. Journal of Population Association of Iran16(32), 41-78. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2022.554147.1231 (In Persian)
Rodrigues-Silveira, R. (2014). The Political Demography: Censuses as Resources for Political Analysis. Spain, Salamanca University.
Sarai, H. (2011). Demography, Foundations and Backgrounds. Tehran: SAMT. (In Persian)
Shojaei, J. (2023). Demographic Challenges of Iran: Strategies and Solutions. Iranian Population Studies8(1), 287-316. https://doi.org/10.22034/jips.2024.399902.1200 (In Persian)
Sadeghi, R. (2022). Population, Development and Social Changes. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities14(4), 5-6. https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2022.410 (In Persian)
Sadeghi, R. (2012). Age Structure Transitions and Emerging Demographic Window in Iran: Economic Outcomes and Policy Implications. Women’s Strategic Studies14(55), 95-150. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.20082827.1391.14.55.4.8 (In Persian)
Sadeghi, R., Esmaeili, N., & Abbasi-Shavazi, M. J. (2021). Education, Development and Internal Migration in Iran. Journal of Population Association of Iran16(31), 193-215. https://doi.org/10.22034/jpai.2021.128570.1152 (In Persian)
Statistical Center of Iran (2016; 2017; 2018; 2019). Results of the Population and Housing Census 2016; 2017; 2019; 2020. Available at: https://www.amar.org.ir (In Persian)
Statistical Center of Iran (2024). Available at: https://www.amar.org.ir (In Persian)
Statistical Center of Iran (1966-2016). General Population and Housing Census 1966-2016. Available at: https://www.amar.org.ir (In Persian)
The Islamic Consultative Assembly Information Center. Available at: https//:rc.majlis.ir/fa/report (In Persian)
The information base of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution. Available at: https://sccr.ir/legistlation/1/ (In Persian)
Torkashvand-Moradabadi, M. & Irannejad, K. (2024). Demographic Dynamics and Population Projections in Iran: Analyzing Population Size and Age Structure up to 2040 Horizon. Journal of Social Continuity and Change (JSCC)3(1), 7-33. https://doi.org/10.22034/jscc.2024.21185.1103 (In Persian)
Tanhaa, F., Rabiei Dastjerdi, H., & Mahmoudian, H. (2025). Spatial Analysis of the Effect of Internal Migration on Changes in the Education Level of the Population in the Counties of Iran. The Journal of Community Development (Rural-Urban)15(2), 487-506. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrd.2024.372371.668843 (In Persian)
Williamson, J, G. (2001). Demographic Change, Economic Growth, and Inequality. Population Matters, Oxford University Press.
Weiner, M., & Teitelbaum, M. S. (2001). Political Demography, Demographic Engineering. New York: Berghahn Books. 
Zanjari, N., Kalantari -Banadaki, S. Z., Sadeghi, R., & Delbari, A. A. (2024). Futures Study of the Challenges and Drivers of Population Aging in Iran Using the Scenario Analysis Technique. Iranian Journal of Ageing, 19(2), 258-275. http://salmandj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-2649-fa.html (In Persian)
Zanjani, H., Fathi, E., & Noorollahi, T. (2016). Demography of Iran. Statistical Research Institute. (In Persian)