Iranian Sociologists and Predicting Changes in the Family Institution in Iran (A Critical Study)

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran. Iran

2 Department of Sociology, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran. Iran

3 Corresponding author, Department of Sociology, Faculty of Literature and Human Sciences, Khwarazmi University, Tehran. Iran

10.22059/jisr.2022.347277.1331

Abstract

The increasing complexity and, as a consequence, the self-sufficiency and independence of institutions relative to social agents is one of the problems of contemporary societies. In the course of modernization, institutions attain an objectivity that is independent of their actors. This complexity of the community management process creates issues that necessitate a focus on the future and an ability to anticipate trends and processes. Prediction is one of the neglected scientific properties in Iranian sociology. In such a way that sociology in Iran has not made an endeavor in the past fourteen decades to predict the future of a particular institution or field change. Nevertheless, sociologists have made accurate predictions unconsciously. In contrast to the prevailing trend of sociology in the rest of the world, where the future of social institutions, including the family, has received more attention, sociologists in our country have studied a variety of social changes, including revolutions and social movements. This article seeks to analyze the Iranian sociologists' perspectives on the changes in the Iranian family as reflected in their writings, in order to classify and quantify their views on the future of the Iranian family.
To answer the question posed above, “what predictions have Iranian sociologists made regarding the Iranian family in terms of marriage, family size, and divorce?” The most effective method is gap analysis, which was initially utilized in engineering and has since been adapted for use in market research.
In Iran, there are two distinct perspectives on the future. The first model is the result of a decade’s worth of work by futurists, which has grown increasingly potent over the past five years. Sociologists have a unique perspective on the future. They have rarely claimed the ability to predict the future, but they have expressed concern about family-related future events. Among all sociological theories, two instances can be stated with clarity. First, none of them have claimed to be able to predict the family’s future, even if they have done so in the past. Next, none of them employed conventional futuristic methods in today’s world. Yet, a substantial portion of future researchers’ research methods are derived from sociology as well. Sociology is a diverse tradition in contemporary world studies of the future. In the sphere of method, however, those who discussed the future of the family did not explicitly mention the futuristic method.
Contrary to popular belief, Iranian society can be foretold through survey research. This is also evident in the realm of the family.

Keywords

References

  • Abazari, Y. (2002). Family breakdown. Aftab, 2(19), 32-41. (In Persian)
  • Abbaszadeh, M., Alizadeh Aghdam, M. B., & Eslami Bonab, S. R. (2012). A Studying the relations between social capital and social anomy. Quarterly of Social Studies and Research in Iran, 1(1), 145-172. (In Persian)
  • Abdi, A., & Gouderzi, M. (2016). A voice that was not heard. Tehran: Ney Publishing. (In Persian)
  • Abercrombie, N. (2007). Sociology. Translated by: H. Jalili. Tehran: Nashre Ney. (In Persian)
  • Ameli, S. R. (2012). Globalization Studies; Two-spatializations and two-worldizations. Tehran: Samt. (In Persian)
  • Azadaramaki, T. (2016). Changes, challenges and future of the Iranian family. Tehran: Tisa Publications. (In Persian)
  • Bauman, Z. (2008). ‎Liquid love on the frailty of human bonds. Translated by: E. Sabeti. Tehran: Qaqnoos. (In Persian)
  • Hajiani, E. (2006). Future studies and its role in strategic reviews. The Scientific Journal of Strategy, 15(3), 280-299. (In Persian)
  • Hajiani, E. (2019). Methodological evaluation criteria of future study techniques. Strategy Quarterly, 20(59), 75-105. (In Persian)
  • Hajiani, E., & Akhlaghi, A. (2009). Foresight of changes in family structure. National Conference on Family Issues in Iran. Strategic Research Center of Expediency Analysis Council. (In Persian)
  • Hajiani, E., Rezaei, A. A., & Falahzadeh, M. A. R. (2012). Social Confidence in Urban Management and the Factors Affecting It. Quarterly of Social Studies and Research in Iran, 1(2), 55-90. https://doi.org/10.22059/jisr.2012.36556 (In Persian)
  • Labibi, M. M. (2014). Family in the 21st century. Tehran: Elm. (In Persian)
  • Legkauskas, V., Stankevičienė, D(2009). Premarital Sex and Marital Satisfaction of Middle Aged Men and Women: A Study of Married Lithuanian Couples. Sex Roles60, 21–32.
  • Mitchell, M. (2021). Complexity: A guided tour. Translated by: R. Amirrahimi. Tehran: Nashre Now. (In Persian)
  • Mohseni, M. (1975). Iranian social and cultural awareness, attitudes and behaviors. Tehran: General Culture Council of the Country. (In Persian)
  • Qaneirad, M. A. (2016). Decline of patriarchy; The collapse of the family or the rise of the civil family?. Tehran: Naqd Farhang Publications. (In Persian)
  • Shekarbeigi, A. (2019). Modernism and social capital (introduction to the sociology of the family in Iran). Tehran: Sociologists. (In Persian)
  • Touraine, A. (2021). Return of the actor: Social theory in postindustrial society. Translated by: S. Sadeghizadeh. Tehran: Saless. (In Persian)
  • Vakili, Sh. (2010). Theory of complex systems. Tehran: Naqdafkar publishing company. (In Persian)
  • Zijderveld, A. (2021). The abstract society: A cultural analysis of our time. Translated by: M. Abdullahzadeh. Tehran: Saless. (In Persian)

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics